Saturday, 2 February 2013

Time Up for Doyle and Cox?






With the pivotal qualification games against Sweden and Austria approaching ever sooner, Republic of Ireland manager Giovanni Trapattoni has a real dilemma in terms of not only trying to produce a team capable of getting results but also picking a squad capable of maximising our limited talent pool. One of the areas of most importance for these games will be which strikers will be chosen, not only in the starting line-up but also in the squad. From the forwards announced for the upcoming friendly against Poland it seems Trapattoni has some idea of a combination of forwards between the likes of Simon Cox, Andy Keogh, Jonathan Walters, Shane Long, Conor Sammon and Kevin Doyle. Although Robbie Keane is excluded no doubt he will be included for the March qualifiers given his impressive goal scoring record for both club and country. Who will make up the other four strikers that Trappatoni will choose for what is deemed to be two games in which our qualification hopes rest on?

Given Ireland’s limited pool of strikers playing top flight football Trapattoni has had to cast his net into the English Championship in the hopes of finding proficient goal scorers. However is he looking at the right players or are some players only being chosen on merit rather than ability? When looking at the most successful Irish strikers playing in England this season two other names must also be included. These are Daryl Murphy of Ipswich and Noel Hunt of Reading. With these two men as well as the six listed which four should be chosen alongside Robbie Keane as Irelands main forwards?

As many people would argue Ireland’s most successful striker so far this season has been Shane Long. From examining the goals to game ratios of these players that assertion can be backed up. Having played twenty nine games for both club and country this season Shane Long has notched a fairly impressive ten goals. This accounts for a goal every 2.9 games. What about the others? Well quiet surprisingly Noel Hunt is the second highest return in terms of goals per game, scoring one in every 3.5 games. This is followed by Jon Walters with one in 3.6 games. It takes Andy Keogh 3.8 games to score and Conor Sammon 4.1. Daryl Murphy will find the back of the net in 4.6 games. Kevin Doyle and Simon Cox have the worst goals to game ratios with Doyle scoring one in 4.7 games while Cox is much worse scoring once every 6.2 games.  

It is clear from this that the likes of Long, Hunt and Walters are much better at finding the net then Murphy, Doyle and Cox. As the saying goes, goals win you games but whose goals win the most? If you are a Nottingham Forest fan you will be unhappy to know that when Simon Cox scores the outcome of the match is usually a draw. Sixty percent of games Cox has scored in this season have ended in a draw for Nottingham Forest with only one resulting in a win. However if you are a Derby County fan and Conor Sammon finds the net be prepared to celebrate as anytime Sammon scores Derby go on to win their games. A Daryl Murphy goal results in an Ipswich win just over sixty six percent of the time while a Jon Walters goal sees Stoke win fifty seven percent of their games. Shane Long’s goals produce a win for his team fifty five percent of the time while Andy Keoghs will get you a win sixty six percent of the time. When Noel Hunt scores Reading win forty percent of their games. Kevin Doyle’s goals have resulted in a win sixty percent of the time.

When it comes to goals winning games Conor Sammon leaps ahead of everyone else, while the likes of Daryl Murphy Andy Keogh and Kevin Doyle finding the net usually means your team has a good chance of winning the game. Much like his goals to game ratio, Simon Cox’s returns are the poorest with his goals only leading to a victory twenty percent of the time.

Perhaps it is unfair to judge a forward on how his goals affect a game. Even if he scores it is up to the rest of the team also to ensure their victory. A goal to game ratio is a much fairer way of determining who our main forwards should be. If we go by this criteria then the obvious beneficiaries would be the likes of Shane Long, Jonathan Walters, Andy Keogh and Noel Hunt. The Waterford born Hunt should feel particularly aggrieved that he hasn’t added to his three previous international appearances, the last coming in October 2009 against Montenegro. So far this season out of the eight strikers examined Hunts goal to game ratio is only bettered by Shane Long. When you look at the returns for both Simon Cox and Kevin Doyle it is very hard to justify why they should be included in the squad at all. Out of the forwards studied these two men proved the worst when it comes to finding the back of the net. Yet they are continually included in international squads. Why is this? Maybe they bring other assets to the squad besides goal scoring? Perhaps it would be best for Giovanni Trapattoni to look to the likes of Keogh, Hunt, Sammon or even Murphy to provide Ireland’s goal scoring threat along with our current crop, Long, Walters and Keane rather than Doyle or Cox.

Irish Strikers and their goals

33 games 7 goals Kevin Doyle

25 games 6 goals Daryl Murphy

23 games 6 goals Andy Keogh

29 games 7 goals Connor Sammon

31 games 5 goals Simon Cox

32 games 9 goals Jon Walters

21 games 6 goals Noel Hunt



29 games 10 goals Shane Long


 

 


 


 

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