With the pivotal qualification games against Sweden
and Austria approaching ever sooner, Republic of Ireland manager Giovanni
Trapattoni has a real dilemma in terms of not only trying to produce a team
capable of getting results but also picking a squad capable of maximising our
limited talent pool. One of the areas of most importance for these games will
be which strikers will be chosen, not only in the starting line-up but also in
the squad. From the forwards announced for the upcoming friendly against Poland
it seems Trapattoni has some idea of a combination of forwards between the likes
of Simon Cox, Andy Keogh, Jonathan Walters, Shane Long, Conor Sammon and Kevin
Doyle. Although Robbie Keane is excluded no doubt he will be included for the
March qualifiers given his impressive goal scoring record for both club and
country. Who will make up the other four strikers that Trappatoni will choose
for what is deemed to be two games in which our qualification hopes rest on?
Given Ireland’s limited pool of strikers playing top
flight football Trapattoni has had to cast his net into the English
Championship in the hopes of finding proficient goal scorers. However is he
looking at the right players or are some players only being chosen on merit
rather than ability? When looking at the most successful Irish strikers playing
in England this season two other names must also be included. These are Daryl
Murphy of Ipswich and Noel Hunt of Reading. With these two men as well as the
six listed which four should be chosen alongside Robbie Keane as Irelands main
forwards?
As many people would argue Ireland’s most successful
striker so far this season has been Shane Long. From examining the goals to
game ratios of these players that assertion can be backed up. Having played
twenty nine games for both club and country this season Shane Long has notched
a fairly impressive ten goals. This accounts for a goal every 2.9 games. What
about the others? Well quiet surprisingly Noel Hunt is the second highest return
in terms of goals per game, scoring one in every 3.5 games. This is followed by
Jon Walters with one in 3.6 games. It takes Andy Keogh 3.8 games to score and
Conor Sammon 4.1. Daryl Murphy will find the back of the net in 4.6 games.
Kevin Doyle and Simon Cox have the worst goals to game ratios with Doyle
scoring one in 4.7 games while Cox is much worse scoring once every 6.2 games.
It is clear from this that the likes of Long, Hunt
and Walters are much better at finding the net then Murphy, Doyle and Cox. As
the saying goes, goals win you games but whose goals win the most? If you are a
Nottingham Forest fan you will be unhappy to know that when Simon Cox scores
the outcome of the match is usually a draw. Sixty percent of games Cox has
scored in this season have ended in a draw for Nottingham Forest with only one
resulting in a win. However if you are a Derby County fan and Conor Sammon
finds the net be prepared to celebrate as anytime Sammon scores Derby go on to
win their games. A Daryl Murphy goal results in an Ipswich win just over sixty
six percent of the time while a Jon Walters goal sees Stoke win fifty seven
percent of their games. Shane Long’s goals produce a win for his team fifty
five percent of the time while Andy Keoghs will get you a win sixty six percent
of the time. When Noel Hunt scores Reading win forty percent of their games.
Kevin Doyle’s goals have resulted in a win sixty percent of the time.
When it comes to goals winning games Conor Sammon
leaps ahead of everyone else, while the likes of Daryl Murphy Andy Keogh and
Kevin Doyle finding the net usually means your team has a good chance of
winning the game. Much like his goals to game ratio, Simon Cox’s returns are
the poorest with his goals only leading to a victory twenty percent of the
time.
Perhaps it is unfair to judge a forward on how his
goals affect a game. Even if he scores it is up to the rest of the team also to
ensure their victory. A goal to game ratio is a much fairer way of determining
who our main forwards should be. If we go by this criteria then the obvious
beneficiaries would be the likes of Shane Long, Jonathan Walters, Andy Keogh
and Noel Hunt. The Waterford born Hunt should feel particularly aggrieved that
he hasn’t added to his three previous international appearances, the last
coming in October 2009 against Montenegro. So far this season out of the eight
strikers examined Hunts goal to game ratio is only bettered by Shane Long. When
you look at the returns for both Simon Cox and Kevin Doyle it is very hard to justify
why they should be included in the squad at all. Out of the forwards studied
these two men proved the worst when it comes to finding the back of the net. Yet
they are continually included in international squads. Why is this? Maybe they
bring other assets to the squad besides goal scoring? Perhaps it would be best
for Giovanni Trapattoni to look to the likes of Keogh, Hunt, Sammon or even
Murphy to provide Ireland’s goal scoring threat along with our current crop,
Long, Walters and Keane rather than Doyle or Cox.
Irish
Strikers and their goals
33 games 7 goals Kevin Doyle
25 games 6 goals Daryl Murphy
23 games 6 goals Andy Keogh
29 games 7 goals Connor Sammon
31 games 5 goals Simon Cox
32 games 9 goals Jon Walters
21 games 6 goals Noel Hunt
29 games 10 goals Shane Long
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